Bears vs. Commanders: Top Prop Bets and What to Watch on MNF Week 6

When Chicago Bears travel to face Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football, the betting world lights up like a stadium scoreboard. The clash, set for 8:15 p.m. ET on October 13, 2025, at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, pits a 2‑2 Bears squad against a 3‑2 Commanders team that has kept a perfect home record so far.

Why This Game Matters Beyond the Score

The matchup isn’t just another NFC North‑East showdown; it’s a litmus test for two divergent offensive philosophies. Chicago’s offense currently leads the league in yards per play, but its ground game has been sputtering, while Washington boasts the NFL’s top rushing attack, averaging 156.4 yards per game. That contrast fuels the most enticing prop bets of the week.

Key Props and the Numbers Behind Them

• Jacory Croskey‑Merritt OVER 60.5 rushing yards (‑109)
• D'Andre Swift UNDER 48.5 rushing yards (‑114)
• Caleb Williams OVER 31.5 pass attempts (‑123)
• Caleb Williams OVER 24.5 rushing yards (‑114) – he ranks ninth in QB rushing yards per game
• Rome Odunze ANYTIME TD (‑140 to ‑145 across sportsbooks)

SportsLine’s consensus lines list Washington as a 5.5‑point favorite with a 49.5‑point over/under. Action Network echoes that spread, adding a -265 moneyline on the Commanders and +210 on the Bears.

Injury Landscape: Who’s In, Who’s Out?

Both sides carry notable absences. CBS Sports reports that Terry McLaurin (quad) and Noah Brown (groin/knee) are out, while Deebo Samuel (heel) is listed as questionable but likely to play. Contradictorily, Sportshandle.com says McLaurin is cleared to return, a discrepancy that adds volatility to the wagering market.

What the Experts Are Saying

Rohit Ponnaiya of Covers.com argues the Commanders’ -4.5 line makes sense because the Bears rank 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (164.5) and dead‑last in yards allowed per carry (6.1). He also backs the over 49.5 total, noting Washington’s third‑fastest pace and relentless no‑huddle approach.

Meanwhile, Sports Illustrated highlights that Chicago’s offense is the league’s most efficient per play, yet its defensive explosiveness may give Washington’s quarterback Jayden Daniels room to exploit mismatches. Daniels is projected OVER 221.5 passing yards and 2+ passing TDs by Action Network and bet365.

Statistical Deep Dive: Rushing Efficiency

Next‑Gen Stats reveal a worrying trend for the Bears’ run game. D'Andre Swift posts a -0.38 rushing‑yard‑over‑expectation (RYOE) per carry, rookie Kyle Monangai sits at -1.18 RYOE, and Caleb Williams himself is at -0.15 RYOE. In contrast, the Commanders average 6.2 yards per carry, reinforcing why Swift’s under bet looks appealing.

Betting Angles to Keep an Eye On

Beyond the headline props, a few niche markets are worth watching:

1. First‑to‑Score: With the Bears’ defense struggling against the run, a quick early score by Washington’s ground game is plausible.
2. Player‑Specific: Jacory Croskey‑Merritt’s red‑zone usage spikes when defenses focus on Daniel’s dual‑threat ability, making his over‑60.5 yard bet a sweet spot.
3. Coach Impact: Ben Johnson, Washington’s new head coach, has leaned heavily on tempo. Expect an uptick in total points if his no‑huddle script holds.

What This Means for the NFC Landscape

If the Commanders cover the spread, they tighten the race for the NFC East lead, pushing the Eagles and Cowboys to keep pace. A Bears win, however, would cement Chicago’s surge back into a playoff conversation, especially given their top‑ranked yards‑per‑play metric.

Looking Ahead: Week 7 Forecast

Should Washington pull off a convincing win, expect them to travel to New York next week against the Giants, a game that could determine who claims the NFC East crown. The Bears, on the other hand, head to Detroit, where a defensively stout Lions squad will test Chicago’s ability to protect the ball while the passing attack seeks consistency.